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Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

机译:统计假设检验和常见的误解:我们应该在法医学应用中放弃p值吗?

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摘要

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses.Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices.
机译:许多人认为假设检验的概念是推论统计的基础。各种思想流派,特别是常识主义者和贝叶斯主义者,已经提出了截然不同的解决方案来决定竞争假设的合理性。关于它们的优缺点的综合哲学比较广泛存在,并继续涉及文献中的大量辩论。最近,科学期刊[1]的编辑决定引发了有争议的讨论,该决定拒绝任何提交的包含无效假设检验程序的论文。由于大多数在法医学期刊上发表的论文都建议根据所谓的p值对统计证据进行评估,因此有兴趣在法医学界内公开讨论该期刊的决定。本文旨在为法医研究人员提供有关主要概念及其对做出明智的方法选择的启示的入门。

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